causal analytics,
agent-first

an analyst testing AI agents against real data — logging what works, what breaks, and where the job is going.

follow on x ↗

latest lab notes

all notes →

open predictions

all predictions →
#001 open

Coding becomes a commodity: by mid-2027 we are coding with open-source agents at close to the cost of the energy they use, and Opus 5.5-level capability is 'good enough' for almost all coding tasks.

made 2026-09-29 · resolve by 2027-06-30 · confidence 90%

#002 open

Data increasingly sits behind MCP. By the end of 2027, everyday professionals ask their own agent to find, query and analyse data, rather than having it presented to them in a dashboard.

made 2026-09-29 · resolve by 2027-12-31 · confidence 70%

#003 open

Making becomes an extension of language: by the end of 2027, 'making' (programming with code) is so everyday that it is simply part of how we speak and write.

made 2026-09-29 · resolve by 2027-12-31 · confidence 80%

usage signals

last updated: september 2026

API spend

september 2026: $30.00

$0 $100 $200 january 2026: $0.50 jan february 2026: $0.55 feb march 2026: $1.16 mar april 2026: $187.10 apr may 2026: $54.00 may june 2026: $30.00 jun july 2026: $30.00 jul august 2026: $30.00 aug september 2026: $30.00 sep

plan spend

september 2026: $20.00

$0 $50 $100 january 2026: $20.00 jan february 2026: $20.00 feb march 2026: $20.00 mar april 2026: $20.00 apr may 2026: $100.00 may june 2026: $100.00 jun july 2026: $20.00 jul august 2026: $20.00 aug september 2026: $20.00 sep

all providers combined.